Miami’s luxury real estate market appears to be thriving, with price per square foot reaching record levels, but local expert Sep Niakan says these statistics are misleading. In a recent interview, Niakan, owner and broker of Blackbook Properties with 20 years of experience in Miami real estate, explained how statistical anomalies are masking actual price declines in the luxury segment.
“If you compare apples to apples, for the most part, prices are actually down by a few percent, anywhere from flat to down even 10%,” said Niakan. “Very small pockets, you might find prices have stayed flat or gone up a little bit. But full samples, they’ve gone down.”
While aggregate statistics suggest continued price appreciation in Miami’s luxury market, Niakan’s analysis of comparable properties reveals a different trend.
Niakan explained that the apparent disconnect between rising market statistics and the reality of declining resale prices stems largely from a shift in what’s actually selling. As the market tilts toward newer, higher-end developments, the data skews upward, reflecting the premium cost of this inventory rather than genuine price growth across the board. The result is that average price-per-square-foot figures appear to rise, even though many older properties are seeing slower movement and price reductions.
He noted that sales activity is now concentrated in luxury new construction projects, where base prices can easily start in the multimillion-dollar range. These properties occupy an entirely different product tier, and their growing share of total transactions distorts the overall market picture. In essence, headline figures reflect the dominance of expensive, newly built homes rather than a broad-based increase in property values.
This statistical masking creates an opportunity that many investors are missing. Niakan said that the disconnect is leading to real market inefficiencies.
For international buyers, the opportunity is even greater. “If you factor in, if you’re from somewhere in South America, and like for Colombia, for example, and you look and you say, okay, the dollar’s down 10% and prices are down 10% that means you’re getting a 20% discount buying here,” Niakan explained. “That’s not a small amount when it comes to real estate.”
Niakan noted that this phenomenon has broader implications for investment strategy. “The main thing is the fact that when you break down apples to apples comparisons, that prices have come down, and that, of course, represents a great opportunity for someone who’s been waiting for prices come down. The stats don’t show it. And so you’re, in a way, you’re potentially missing the opportunity.”